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Friday, October 9, 2015

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

A Note to Users of the SPF Data: File MeanGrowth.xls

Summary. We recently discovered an error in the file for the growth of the mean forecasts for the levels of SPF variables. The error was in the file labeled MeanGrowth.xls. The error affected no other files, even other files having growth rates. Note also that the error in no way affected the data that have been reported in our survey newsletters: The survey newsletters have correct data in all tables.

Details. Beginning with the files that we released for the fourth-quarter survey of 2014 (published on November 17, 2014), we incorrectly reported data in the file labeled MeanGrowth.xls. The file was supposed to report the growth rates of the mean forecasts for levels of SPF variables, but it instead reported growth rates for the median forecasts for levels.

Corrections. On July 8, 2015, we fixed the problem in MeanGrowth.xls and posted the correction on our website.

For additional information, please contact:

Tom Stark
Assistant Director and Manager
Real-Time Data Research Center
Research Department
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Phone: 215-574-6436

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers.

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