International Workshop on Expectation Formation

Thursday, February 26

5:00 p.m.

Reception
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Bridge, 3rd Floor

6:30 p.m.

Dinner
Amada Restaurant (217 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA)

Friday, February 27
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Delaware Room, 3rd Floor

8:30 a.m.

Continental Breakfast

9:00 a.m.

Welcome and Opening Remarks
Leonard Nakamura, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Moderator: Leonard Nakamura, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

9:15 a.m.

Takao Komine, Hosei University (with Kanemi Ban, Masaaki Kawagoe, and Hiroshi Yoshida)
What Have We Learned From a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of the Four-Year Experience of the ESP Forecast (202 KB, 20 pages)

10:15 a.m.

Yosuke Takeda, Sophia University
Do Professional Forecasters Make Use of the Phillips Curve? An Econometric Analysis of the Japanese Data (341 KB, 17 pages)

11:15 a.m.

Break

11:30 a.m.

Simon Van Norden, HEC Montreal (with John W. Galbraith)
The Calibration of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts (635 KB, 31 pages)

12:30 p.m.

Lunch

Moderator: Tom Stark, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

1:30 p.m.

Aidan Meyler and Ieva Rubene, European Central Bank
An Overview of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): 1999 – 2008 (Aidan Meyler)
Results from the ECB's SPF Special Questionnaire (Ieva Rubene) (447 MB, 40 pages)

Background Paper: The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): A Review After Eight Years' Experience (1.15 MB, 70 pages)

2:30 p.m.

Break

2:45 p.m.

Dean Croushore, University of Richmond and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value for Research (158 KB, 29 pages)

3:45 p.m.

Closing Remarks
Takao Komine, Hosei University
Tom Stark, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia