Michael Dotsey

Vice President and Senior Economic Policy Advisor

Phone: (215) 574-6417
Fax: (215) 574-4364
Send an e-mail to Michael Dotsey

Current Working Papers

"Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," with Shigeru Fujita and Tom Stark, Working Paper 11-40, September 2011.
"On the Implementation of Markov-Perfect Monetary Policy," with Andreas Hornstein, Working Paper 11-29, July 2011.
"Consumption and Time Use over the Life Cycle," with Wenli Li and Fang Yang, Working Paper 10-37, November 2010.
"How Important Is the Currency Denomination of Exports in Open-Economy Models?," with Margarida Duarte, Working Paper 09-32, November 2009.
"On the Implementation of Markov-Perfect Interest Rate and Money Supply Rules: Global and Local Uniqueness," with Andreas Hornstein, Working Paper 08-30, December 2008.
"Interest Rate Versus Money Supply Instruments: On the Implementation of Markov-Perfect Optimal Monetary Policy," with Andreas Hornstein, Working Paper 07-27, September 2007. Superseded by Working Paper 08-30.
"Nontraded Goods, Market Segmentation, and Exchange Rates," with Margarida Duarte, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Working Paper 06-9, May 2006.
"Pricing, Production, and Persistence," with Robert G. King, NBER Working Paper 8407, August 2002.
"Structure from Shocks," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Working Paper 99-6, August 1999.
"The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Neoclassical Growth Model," with Ching Sheng Mao, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Working Paper 94-3, February 1994.

Publications in Refereed Journals

"Implications of State-Dependent Pricing for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," with Robert G. King, Journal of Monetary Economics, (January 2005), pp. 213-242.
"Should a Monetary Policy Maker Look at Money?" with Andreas Hornstein, Journal of Monetary Economics, (April 2003), pp. 547-580.
"The Behavior of the Real Rate of Interest," with Carl Lantz and Brian Scholl, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, (February 2003), pp. 91-110.
"Inflation Uncertainty and Growth in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," with Pierre-Daniel Sarte, Journal of Monetary Economics (June 2000), pp. 631-657.
"State Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," with Robert G. King and Alex Wolman, Quarterly Journal of Economics, (May 1999).
"On the Welfare Cost of Inflation in General Equilibrium," with Peter Ireland, Journal of Monetary Economics (February 1996), pp. 29-47.
"Liquidity Effects and Transactions Technologies," with Peter Ireland, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (November 1995), pp. 1441-1457.
"Some Unpleasant Supply Side Arithmetic," Journal of Monetary Economics (June 1994), pp. 507-524.
"How Well Do Linear Approximation Methods Work? The Production Tax Case," with Ching-Sheng Mao, Journal of Monetary Economics (February 1992), pp. 25-58.
"Open Market Operations in Australia: A U.S. Perspective," Economic Record (September 1991).
"The Economic Effects of Production Taxes in a Stochastic Growth Model," American Economic Review (December 1990), pp.1168-1182.
"Monetary Control Under Alternative Operating Procedures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (August 1989), pp.273-290.
"The Demand for Currency in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (February 1988), pp. 22-39.
"Monetary Policy, Secrecy, and Federal Funds Rate Behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics (November 1987), pp.463-474.
"Wealth Effects of Open Market Operations and the Consequence for Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics (March 1986), pp. 225-238.
"Informational Implications of Interest Rate Rules," with R.G. King, American Economic Review (March 1983), pp. 33-42.
"The Use of Electronic Funds Transfers to Capture the Effects of Cash Management Practices on the Demand for Demand Deposits: A Note," Journal of Finance (December 1985), pp. 1493-1504.
"Is There an Operational Interest Rate Rule?" American Economic Review (June 1985), pp. 552-556.
"Monetary Instruments and Policy Roles in a Rational Expectations Environment," with R.G. King, Journal of Monetary Economics (September 1983), pp. 357-382.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles

"Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," Second Quarter 2010.
"Commitment Versus Discretion in Monetary Policy," Fourth Quarter 2008.

Other Publications

"Pitfalls in Interpreting Tests of Backward Looking Pricing in New Keynesian Models," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, (forthcoming).
"Is Money Useful in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" with Carl Lantz and Lawrence Santucci, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Fall 2002), pp. 23-48.
"The Importance of Systemetic Monetary Policy Economics," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Summer 1999), pp. 41-60.
"The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Summer 1998).
"Investing in Equities â€“ Can It Help Social Security?" Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Fall 1997).
"Signal Extraction," in Business Cycles and Depressions, David Glasner, ed, Garland Publishing (1997).
"Some Not So Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Fall 1996).
"Changing Policy Orientation in the United States," Monetary Policy in an Integrated World Economy, Kiel Conference Proceedings (1996).
"Was the Disinflation of the Early 1980s Anticipated?" Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Fall 1995).
"The Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and Time Varying Term Premia," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Winter 1995).
"M2 and Monetary Policy: A Critical Review of the Recent Debate," with Christopher Otrok, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly (Winter 1994).
"Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," with Milton Reid, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (July/August 1992).
"Monetary Policy and Operating Procedures in New Zealand," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (September/October 1991).
"Reforming Deposit Insurance: Lessons from the Savings and Loan Crisis," with Tony Kuprianov, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (March/April 1990).
"An Examination of International Trade Data in the 1980s," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (March/April 1989).
"Rational Expectations and the Business Cycle," with R.G. King, in The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economic Theory and Doctrine and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (March/April 1988).
"The Australian Money Market and the Operations of the Reserve Bank of Australia: A Comparative Analysis," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (September/October 1987).
"Japanese Monetary Policy, a Comparative Analysis," Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies 4 (October 1986) and in Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (November/December 1986).
"Controversy over the Federal Budget Deficit: A Theoretical Perspective," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (September/October 1985).
"An Investigation of Cash Management Practices and Their Effects on the Demand for Money," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (September/October 1984).
"An Examination of Implicit Interest Rates on Demand Deposits," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review (September/October 1983).
"Money Market Mutual Funds and Monetary Control," with S. Englander and J. Partlan, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review (Winter 1981-82).