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Home > Research & Data > Real-Time Data Research Center > Survey of Professional Forecasters

Survey of Professional Forecasters

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers.

Recent Releases Last update: August 12, 2008

• Third Quarter 2008
• Second Quarter 2008
• First Quarter 2008

previous releases

View previous releases of the Survey of Professional Forecasters going back to Third Quarter 1990. All surveys are in PDF format.

- select a quarter - 1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2006 2Q 2006 3Q 2006 4Q 2006 1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005 4Q 2005 1Q 2004 2Q 2004 3Q 2004 4Q 2004 1Q 2003 2Q 2003 3Q 2003 4Q 2003 1Q 2002 2Q 2002 3Q 2002 4Q 2002 1Q 2001 2Q 2001 3Q 2001 4Q 2001 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1Q 1999 2Q 1999 3Q 1999 4Q 1999 1Q 1998 2Q 1998 3Q 1998 4Q 1998 1Q 1997 2Q 1997 3Q 1997 4Q 1997 1Q 1996 2Q 1996 3Q 1996 4Q 1996 1Q 1995 2Q 1995 3Q 1995 4Q 1995 1Q 1994 2Q 1994 3Q 1994 4Q 1994 1Q 1993 2Q 1993 3Q 1993 4Q 1993 1Q 1992 2Q 1992 3Q 1992 4Q 1992 1Q 1991 2Q 1991 3Q 1991 4Q 1991 3Q 1990 4Q 1990

Historical Data

• Download one variable at a time
• Download all variables: mean, median, and individual forecasts
• Probability Variables: Excel file containing mean probabilities of annual inflation and output growth falling into various ranges and the mean probability that quarter-over-quarter output growth will be negative.
• Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Forecasts: Expected inflation over the next year and the next 10 years.
• Anxious Index: The probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter following the quarter in which the survey is taken. Includes chart and data.
• Errata: Shows corrections to the historical data. (88 KB, 26 pages)

Resources

• Documentation: Provides information on all variables, transformations, and files in the survey. (228 KB, 23 pages; last update: September 4, 2008)
• Data Sources and Descriptions: Shows the specifications of the economic variables being forecast. (24 KB, 3 pages)
• Forecast Error Statistics: Shows statistics on the accuracy of the projections for most variables in the survey.
• Academic Bibliography: Contains a comprehensive list of academic articles that discuss or use the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
• Business Review article: "Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters"
• Dates of Previous Surveys: Shows the release dates of previous surveys.
• Examples of Survey Forms: See a recent survey form and several forms from the past.
• Discussion of Survey of Professional Forecasters' Long-Term Forecast for Inflation
• Responses to special questions about inflation targeting (from the Fourth Quarter 2007 survey)
• Discussion of the New Industry Classification (144 KB, 12 pages)