Working Papers 2008: Abstracts
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08-13 Quits, Worker Recruitment, and Firm Growth: Theory and Evidence by R. Jason Faberman and Eva Nagypal
The authors use establishment data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to study the micro-level behavior of worker quits and their relation to recruitment and establishment growth. They find that quits decline with establishment growth, playing the most important role at slowly contracting firms. They also find a robust, positive relationship between an establishment's reported hires and vacancies and the incidence of a quit. This relationship occurs despite the finding that quits decline, and hires and vacancies increase, with establishment growth. The authors characterize these dynamics within a labor-market search model with on-the-job search, a convex cost of creating new positions, and multi-worker establishments. The model distinguishes between recruiting to replace a quitting worker and recruiting for a new position, and relates this distinction to firm performance. Beyond giving rise to a varying quit propensity, the model generates endogenously determined thresholds for firm contraction (through both layoffs and attrition), worker replacement, and firm expansion. The continuum of decision rules derived from these thresholds produces rich firm-level dynamics and quit behavior that are broadly consistent with the empirical evidence of the JOLTS data.
[PDF, 524 KB, 50 pages]
08-12 Can Multi-Stage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade? by Kei-Mu Yi
A large empirical literature finds that there is too little international trade, and too much intra-national trade to be rationalized by observed international trade costs such as tariffs and transport costs. The literature uses frameworks in which goods are assumed to be produced in just one stage. This paper investigates whether the multi-stage nature of production helps explain the home bias in trade. The author shows that multi-stage production magnifies the effects of trade costs. He then calibrates a multi-stage production model to the U.S. and Canada. He solves the model with measures of trade costs constructed from data on tariffs, transport costs, and wholesale distribution margins. The model can explain about 3/8 of the Canada border effect; this is three times more than what a calibrated one-stage model can explain. The model also explains a good deal of Canada’s vertical specialization trade. Finally, a reverse engineering exercise suggests that the unknown or unobserved component of trade costs is smaller than observed trade costs.
[PDF, 362 KB, 42 pages]
08-11 Job Flows, Jobless Recoveries, and the Great Moderation by R. Jason Faberman
This paper uses new data on job creation and job destruction to find evidence of a link between the jobless recoveries of the last two recessions and the recent decline in aggregate volatility known as the Great Moderation. The author finds that the last two recessions are characterized by jobless recoveries that came about through contrasting margins of employment adjustment—a relatively slow decline in job destruction in 1991-92 and persistently low job creation in 2002-03. In manufacturing, he finds that these patterns followed a secular decline in the magnitude of job flows and an abrupt decline in their volatility. A structural VAR analysis suggests that these patterns are driven by a decline in the volatilities of the underlying structural shocks in addition to a shift in the response of job flows to these shocks. The shift in structural responses is broadly consistent with the change in job flow patterns observed during the jobless recoveries.
[PDF, 368 KB, 50 pages]
08-10 Business Method Patents and U.S. Financial Services by Robert M. Hunt
A decade after the State Street decision, more than 1,000 business method patents are granted each year. Yet only one in ten are obtained by a financial institution. Most business method patents are also software patents.
Have these patents increased innovation in financial services? To address this question the author constructs new indicators of R&D intensity based on the occupational composition of financial industries. The financial sector appears more research intensive than official statistics would suggest but less than the private economy taken as a whole. There is considerable variation across industries but little apparent trend. There does not appear to be an obvious effect from business method patents on the sector’s research intensity.
Looking ahead, three factors suggest that the patent system may affect financial services as it has electronics: (1) the sector’s heavy reliance on information technology; (2) the importance of standard setting; and (3) the strong network effects exhibited in many areas of finance. Even today litigation is not uncommon; we sketch a number of significant examples affecting financial exchanges and consumer payments.
The legal environment is changing quickly. The author reviews a number of important federal court decisions that will affect how business method patents are obtained and enforced. He also reviews a number of proposals under consideration in the U.S. Congress.
[PDF, 308 KB, 46 pages]
08-9 Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation by Theodore M. Crone, N. Neil K. Khettry, Loretta J. Mester, and Jason A. Novak
Two rationales offered for policymakers' focus on core measures of inflation as a guide to underlying inflation are that core inflation omits food and energy prices, which are thought to be more volatile than other components, and that core inflation is thought to be a better predictor of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors' investigation finds little support for either rationale. They find that food and energy prices are not the most volatile components of inflation and that depending on which inflation measure is used, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. However, they do find that combining CPI and PCE inflation measures can lead to statistically significant more accurate forecasts of each inflation measure, suggesting that each measure includes independent information that can be exploited to yield better forecasts.
[PDF, 415 KB, 40 pages]
08-8 Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy by Dean Croushore
This paper examines the characteristics of the revisions to the inflation rate as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index both including and excluding food and energy prices. These data series play a major role in the Federal Reserve’s analysis of inflation.
The author examines the magnitude and patterns of revisions to both PCE inflation rates. The first question he poses is: What do data revisions look like? The author runs a variety of tests to see if the data revisions have desirable or exploitable properties. The second question he poses is related to the first: Can we forecast data revisions in real time? The answer is that it is possible to forecast revisions from the initial release to August of the following year. Generally, the initial release of inflation is too low and is likely to be revised up. Policymakers should account for this predictability in setting monetary policy.
[PDF, 271 KB, 43 pages]
08-7 Monetary Policy in a Channel System by Aleksander Berentsen and Cyril Monnet
Channel systems for conducting monetary policy are becoming increasingly popular. Despite its popularity, the consequences of implementing policy with a channel system are not well understood. The authors develop a general equilibrium framework of a channel system and study the optimal policy. A novel aspect of the channel system is that a central bank can "tighten" or "loosen" its policy without changing its policy rate. This policy instrument has so far been overlooked by a large body of the literature on the optimal design of interest-rate rules.
[PDF, 371 KB, 43 pages]
08-6 Specific Capital and Vintage Effects on the Dynamics of Unemployment and Vacancies by Burcu Eyigungor
In a reasonably calibrated Mortensen and Pissarides matching model, shocks to average labor productivity can account for only a small portion of the fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies (Shimer (2005a)). In this paper, the author argues that if vintage specific shocks rather than aggregate productivity shocks are the driving force of fluctuations, the model does a better job of accounting for the data. She adds heterogeneity in jobs (matches) with respect to the time the job is created in the form of different embodied technology levels. The author also introduces specific capital that, once adapted for a match, has less value in another match. In the quantitative analysis, she shows that shocks to different vintages of entrants are able to account for fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies and that, in this environment, specific capital is important to decreasing the volatility of the destruction rate of existing matches.
[PDF, 253 KB, 33 pages]
08-5 Central Bank Institutional Structure and Effective Central Banking: Cross-Country Empirical Evidence by Iftekhar Hasan and Loretta J. Mester
Over the last decade, the legal and institutional frameworks governing central banks and financial market regulatory authorities throughout the world have undergone significant changes. This has created new interest in better understanding the roles played by organizational structures, accountability, and transparency, in increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of central banks in achieving their objectives and ultimately yielding better economic outcomes. Although much has been written pointing out the potential role institutional form can play in central bank performance, little empirical work has been done to investigate the hypothesis that institution form is related to performance. This paper attempts to help fill this void.
[PDF, 405 KB, 36 pages]
08-4 Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis by Dean Croushore
This paper describes the existing research (as of February 2008) on real-time data analysis, divided into five areas: (1) data revisions; (2) forecasting; (3) monetary policy analysis; (4) macroeconomic research; and (5) current analysis of business and financial conditions. In each area, substantial progress has been made in recent years, with researchers gaining insight into the impact of data revisions. In addition, substantial progress has been made in developing better real-time data sets around the world. Still, additional research is needed in key areas, and research to date has uncovered even more fruitful areas worth exploring.
[PDF, 265 KB, 38 pages]
08-3 Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations
by George Alessandria, Joseph Kaboski, and Virgiliu Midrigan
Fixed transaction costs and delivery lags are important costs of international trade. These costs lead firms to import infrequently and hold substantially larger inventories of imported goods than domestic goods. Using multiple sources of data, the authors document these facts. They then show that a parsimoniously parameterized model economy with importers facing an (S, s)-type inventory management problem successfully accounts for these features of the data. Moreover, the model can account for import and import price dynamics in the aftermath of large devaluations. In particular, desired inventory adjustment in response to a sudden, large increase in the relative price of imported goods creates a short-term trade implosion, an immediate, temporary drop in the value and number of distinct varieties imported, as well as a slow increase in the retail price of imported goods. The authors' study of 6 current account reversals following large devaluation episodes in the last decade provides strong support for the model’s predictions.
[PDF, 546 KB, 57 pages]
08-2 Optimal Industrial Structure in Banking
by Loretta J. Mester
This paper discusses the research agenda on optimal bank productive efficiency and industrial structure. One goal of this agenda is to answer some fundamental questions in financial industry restructuring, such as what motivates bank managers to engage in mergers and acquisitions, and to evaluate the costs and benefits of consolidation, which is essentially an empirical question. The paper reviews the recent literature, including techniques for modeling bank production and the empirical results on scale economies, scope economies, and efficiency in banking.
[PDF, 333 KB, 43 pages]
08-1 Efficiency in Banking: Theory, Practice, and Evidence
by Joseph P. Hughes and Loretta J. Mester
Great strides have been made in the theory of bank technology in terms of explaining banks’ comparative advantage in producing informationally intensive assets and financial services and in diversifying or offsetting a variety of risks. Great strides have also been made in explaining sub-par managerial performance in terms of agency theory and in applying these theories to analyze the particular environment of banking. In recent years, the empirical modeling of bank technology and the measurement of bank performance have begun to incorporate these theoretical developments and yield interesting insights that reflect the unique nature and role of banking in modern economies. This paper gives an overview of two general empirical approaches to measuring bank performance and discusses some of the applications of these approaches found in the literature.
[PDF, 303 KB, 32 pages]
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